UPSETS: 2009 EDITION

Rick Figurin
pigskinpress.com

Week #1
Richmond at Duke- The Spiders are coming of last season’s FCS national championship and Duke, while improved, may be outmatched by QB Eric Ward and company. Remember, Duke lost to the Spiders in 2006, and the 2009 version is even better.
Richmond 23 Duke 16

Nevada at Notre Dame- Most are predicting Notre Dame to win 9 or 10 games next season, but Nevada is no slouch. The Wolfpack return 14 starters, including QB Colin Kaepernick, and nearly every key starter from last season’s team. The Wolfpack DE’s will keep Jimmy Clausen honest in a game that could have the Irish faithful calling for Charlie Weiss’ immediate dismissal. With Michigan on the schedule in week #2, the Irish could be caught off-guard.
Nevada 35 Notre Dame 31

Central Michigan at Arizona- Arizona is the better team, but in week one this could be a real battle for the Wildcats. CMU returns one of the nation’s best QB’s in Dan LeFevour, not to mention outstanding WR’s Antonio Brown and Brian Anderson. The Chippewas return 10 starters on defense, and it could take Arizona awhile to get the offense going with a new QB under center.
CMU 34 Arizona 31

Week #2
Colorado at Toledo- New Toledo HC Tim Beckman was the defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State the last two seasons, so he’s familiar with Dan Hawkins and the CU offense. Factor in that this will be a nationally televised home opener for the Rockets, and that Toledo is going to be better than most people think, and you’ve got yourself an upset. Did we mention that C.U. has only won four road games in four seasons?
Toledo 30 Colorado 27 /OT

Stanford at Wake Forest-Were not jumping on the Stanford bandwagon just yet, but this could be where we start to really keep an eye on the Cardinal. Wake loses 7 defensive starters from a season ago, and that will allow Stanford to have some success through the air, and allow RB Toby Gearhart to pound away at the defensive line. This will still be a low scoring affair.
Stanford 16 Wake Forest 14

La. Tech at Navy- Louisiana Tech’s run defense only allowed 103 rushing yards per game last season. Factor in that their offense is dangerous, and Navy only has 11 returning starters and a depleted offense, and we think that the Bulldogs pull the upset on the road. Sandwiched between the Ohio State and Pitt games, the Midshipmen may be looking at this as an easy win.
La. Tech 30 Navy 23

Utah at San Jose State- Ute fans will be very upset with us over this one, but we picked them to whoop Michigan last year and they did. Unfortunately, SJSU’s defense will give the Utes fits in this one. Team Ihenacho and company will keep Matt Asiata in check, and the Utes will need to win with the deep ball. The only saving grace for Utah is that the Spartans offense can be anemic at times. Regardless, well take the Spartans and their defense.
SJSU 17 Utah 16

Week #3
Florida Atlantic at South Carolina- Classic trap door game! This game is between a road game at Georgia, and a home game with Ole Miss, both conference powerhouses! Florida Atlantic is learning to step up against big-boy competition; they’re not winning yet, but it needs to start somewhere. QB Rusty Smith is NFL material, and Howard Schnellenberger can keep a level head in big games. We know it’s a “crazy” pick, but why not?
FAU 27 South Carolina 26

UAB at Troy- Troy will surprise a lot of people with their talent this year, but they will also be surprised! UAB brings back 11 starters on offense, and that’s the kind of offensive experience you need to hang with Troy. Joe Webb is scary good and vastly underrated as the leader of the UAB offense, and the Blazers will win a shootout to start the season 3-0.
UAB 48 Troy 44

California at Minnesota- Playing Minnesota in the dome can be a scary experience, and now with a new stadium opening, attendance and energy will both be high.Minnesota’s run defense will force Cal to rely on the pass which is not the game they want to play. We like the Gophers in a big win.
Minnesota 31 Cal 20

Northern Illinois at Purdue- It will be a rough year for Purdue this season, as the team is young and so is the coaching staff. Not that NIU is a powerhouse, but this is exactly the kind of Game NIU head coach Jerry Kill loves! He gave both Minnesota (27-31) and Tennessee (9-13) a scare last season and knows how to win as the underdog. Take the Huskies in low scoring affair where they control the clock.
NIU 17 Purdue 14

Virginia at S. Miss- Southern Mississippi is the better team, but as long as Virginia claims the ACC as its conference it’s an upset-even at home! The Golden Eagles bring back 19 starters, including RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown. Couple that with USM’s very balanced defense and the Eagles are 3-0 to start the year.
USM 35 Virginia 21

Florida State at BYU- Florida State has struggled in the past against Mountain West opponents, and now the MWC is even stronger. BYU’s offense will not be stopped at home, especially when the Seminoles only bring back 5 starters on defense. The Noles’ pass rush will be suspect to start the year, and BYU QB Max hall will make them pay.
BYU 31 FSU 24

West Virginia at Auburn- Last year, we picked West Virginia to lose in Boulder to Colorado, this year their on the winning end of our prediction! We like the quick, multi-talented offense of the Mountaineers to beat the Tigers for a second straight season. Auburn still has some problems on offense that won’t be worked out by week #3, and Noel Devine will, if nothing else, force the Tigers to adjust their defense, thus giving up some 10-15 yard routes that could be easy pickins’ for WVU.
West Virginia 33 Auburn 21

Georgia at Arkansas- We love Georgia, but this game just feels like it could be this year’s version of Florida/Ole Miss. Arkansas is on the up-and-up, they return 10 starters on defense, and they’ll be playing their home opener off of a bye week. Logically, we shouldn’t pick Arkansas but upsets happen everywhere, and everyone is susceptible.
Arkansas 27 Georgia 26

Week #4
Illinois at Ohio State- That’s right, the Illini will upset the Buckeyes for the 2nd time in three years! Juice Williams plays Ohio State close, and while the Buckeyes will put together a better season, this game will be their slip-up. Look for OSU to try and double cover WR Arrelious Benn, but with little success.
Illinois 20 OSU 17

TCU at Clemson- We like Clemson a lot (#9 in our poll), but it has become the norm that most teams will have a misstep. Clemson’s will be against TCU, and it will be in week #4 at home against TCU. Horned Frogs DE Jerry Hughes will give fairly inexperienced Clemson QB Willie Korn fits all day. TCU’s defense gave up 47 yards per game last year against the run; this will make for a long day for C.J. Spiller. However, Clemson has a great defense as well and this could be the lowest scoring game of the year for both teams.
TCU 14 Clemson 12

Week #5
Arkansas State at Iowa- This is our 2009 upset special. This is an Arkansas State team that beat Texas A&M in College Station last year, so they won’t be intimidated in Iowa City. One thing about Arkansas State is that they are very smart, and can control the clock should they choose to. The Red Wolves gave #4 Texas a fit in Austin (13-21) in 2007 as well as Tennessee (27-48). Iowa will struggle for consistency on offense without Shonn Greene, and with this game perfectly situated between Penn State and Michigan, were taking the Red Wolves.
ASU 22 Iowa 20

Oklahoma at Miami- This is going to be a terrific game, and the game that puts Miami back in the national championship discussion. After taking their lumps the past two seasons against higher competition, Miami is ready to compete. QB Jacory Harris will bloom in year two and Oklahoma may sputter on offense from time to time. Oklahoma is a terrific team, but we have a feeling this could be a home field program changer for the ‘Canes.
Miami 36 Oklahoma 29

Air Force at Navy- Yes, Navy is rebuilding, but after losing six in a row Air Force will reverse the trend and win the Commander-In-Chief trophy in 2009. Troy Calhoun has been terrific in Colorado Springs and his stock with fans will only get bigger with this win and a third straight bowl game.
Air Force 35 Navy 27

Week #6
Arizona at Washington- The Wildcats will be upset for a second time when they roll into Seattle and face the Huskies. Washington QB Jake Locker is due to have a couple of upsets before his days are over at UW; it won’t happen against Cal and USC, so it will probably come against the Arizona’s and Oregon’s of the conference. After a 1-4 start, this will be Locker’s turn-around point.
Washington 42 Arizona 38

Week #7
Boise State at Tulsa- We made the mistake of picking USM to upset Boise last season-not so much. However, after an 11-day layoff following a game against FCS team UC Davis, the Broncos will be upset by a Tulsa offense that can go tit-for-tat with them.
Defense need not apply in this game.
Tulsa 49 Boise State 44

Hawaii at Idaho- Idaho showed some good progress at times on offense last season, and we feel that they may be able to piece together enough in the Kibbie Dome to break a seven game losing streak to the Warriors. Hawaii’s defense will have some serious growing to do, and will be susceptible in games like this. Between home games with Fresno and Boise for Hawaii, we’ll take the Vandals.
Idaho 38 Hawaii 27

Week #8
Florida State at North Carolina- First ever Thursday night, ESPN game for the Heels! The atmosphere will be electric and T.J. Yates will be on fire. By this point in the season, Yates should have his favorite targets, and his passing numbers should increase from a rough start to the season. The ACC will be up for grabs and be filled with upsets in 2009; this will be one of them.
UNC 24 FSU 17

Week #9
Central Michigan at Boston College- 2nd upset for the Chippewas, and quite frankly, maybe more likely than the Arizona win. The Eagles have had a tough off-season and the offense will struggle; that’s a bad thing when playing Central. If not for questionable play calling, Central could have won this game in Mt. Pleasant back in 2006.
CMU 31 BC 24

Week #10
Toledo at Central Michigan- The Chippewas come back to Earth when the Rockets pay a visit after an off week, on November, 11th. The Rockets have an almost unstoppable running game, and the defensive backfield is quick enough (and experienced) to pull the upset.Central has found one game that they sleep-walk in the last couple of year's and this will be 2009's.
Toledo 52 CMU 38

Week #11
Troy at Arkansas- The Trojans offense is potent, and the Arkansas defense can be porous at times. If Arkansas finds themselves under .500 at this point in the season, look for the Trojans to pull the upset. Troy’s pass rush is fast and could force Ryan Mallett out of the pocket, especially if the running game struggles.
Troy 38 Arkansas 35

Week #12
LSU at Ole Miss- Ole Miss is getting all the Hype (aside from Florida) in the SEC this off-season. Make no doubt, they are good, but LSU has a lot of young skill position players that could really come on strong in the last third of the season. Ole Miss will probably be gliding through their favorable schedule, and this game could really take them by surprise. Take the Tigers!
LSU 27 Ole Miss 18

Week #13
Notre Dame at Stanford- This is a classic matchup, and we feel, the beginning of a tumultuous couple of weeks for Charlie Weis. Many have called for Notre Dame to have a 10 win season, but we’re thinking more like 7-5; not because of lack of talent, but underachieving. This will be the win where we can “legitimately” start talking about Jim Harbaugh’s terrific coaching.
Stanford 27 Notre Dame 24

Week #14
Oregon State at Oregon- Because the game is in Eugene, you have to consider the Ducks as the favorite. Mike Reilly will find a way to pay the Ducks back for last year’s embarrassing, Rose-Bowl-Killing loss. The difference in this one will be OSU QB Lyle Moevao against a struggling Oregon defensive backfield.
OSU 33 Oregon 31

Fresno State at Illinois- Illinois will more than likely not be winning the Big Ten. That being said, they could be sleep walking in this one as their bowl fate will already be decided. Pat Hill thrives on these kinds of matchups, and if he wants to keep the fan base on his side, despite not winning the WAC, this is the kind of win that will help.
Fresno 37 Illinois 21.

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